One thing we have all learned about technology is that it cannot be restrained. With the release of ChatGPT and various competitors, we are aware that an unfathomable technology will disrupt our lives in ways beyond our imagination. In the coming years 2nd and 3rd generation AI will replace its forerunners. My guess is that this technology will dwarf the impact that the internet has had on all of us.
It will be able to create and cure and innovate and
communicate and build and teach and protect and even drive your car. As mentioned, future AI functions and
capabilities are beyond the horizon and are out of view.
Exciting? What if
your job would be an AI casualty? It
you drive a vehicle for a living, how will you and your family adapt when human
drivers are no longer necessary? Even
jobs and occupations that we might believe are beyond AI’s grasp, may be in the
crosshairs. AI’s reach will be
boundless. It’s tentacles will reach through
blue collar America and will penetrate deeply into the white collar professional
world.
Physicians 10 years ago would have denied that telemedicine
could replace office visits. Ten years
from now, AI might be able to replace a physician.
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And like any technology, there will be nefarious consequence
from individuals, businesses, nations and non-state actors who have evil
intent. Will the AI industry and the
rest of us defer AI’s general use until safeguards and codes of conduct and a
robust security infrastructure are in place? I doubt it. The time to erect safeguards is
before a new and controversial technology is released.
Suppose a business wants to prevail in the marketplace. The old fashion way is to market a superior
product or have a lower price point. The
new way may be to produce credible but false evidence smearing a competitor’s
research practices, safety operations, financial dealings or even the personal
behavior of the company’s leadership.
Individuals can wield the same technique against a neighbor or a
boss. How will innocent parties be able
to defend themselves? If a videotape
clearly shows me robbing a bank, for example, what fate might befall me? What if a nation receives falsified
intelligence that an adversary is launching missiles toward it? Scary
thoughts. The destructive potential of AI would make today’s
internet hackers and ransomware practitioners seem quaint.
Of course, this technology needs to be regulated. As always, the challenge will be on achieving
agreement on where to draw the line.
Some will regard regulations to be guardrails while others will argue that
they are handcuffs. As an ordinary
person, I’d rather have more safety and less innovation.
If you think that our nation and the world is in turmoil now,
do you imagine that the emergence of AI would bring us all healing and harmony?
Despite all of my misgivings, I am an AI supporter but want industry and governments to do all they can to protect us. Of course, risk can't be eliminated but it can be reduced.. And we need a global system that will enforce the rules of the road with real world consequences. But even with such a robust system, there is no guarantee of compliance. Our strategy must not be Fire! Ready! Aim!
As usual, you your column is prescient and on the nose. I fear that the excitement of innovation with drawn out the voices of caution. We often get ahead of ourselves like this such as in genetic engineering. AI is so widespread and with so many repercussions even Chat GPT can’t imagine them all. Interesting, incredibly helpful and remarkably scary!
ReplyDeleteElliot Davidson, MD