When will there be a Coronavirus Vaccine?

We are all hopeful that effective treatments against COVID-19 will emerge in the next 1-2 years. The first round of medicines will be replaced with superior alternatives. This is called progress. But as of now, we have no effective therapy. I have already expressed my skepticism over chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, whose popularity and usage had skyrocketed despite the absence of credible and persuasive medical evidence of efficacy, but the initial sugar-high has dampened. Clinical trials are in progress on various agents and will bring some clarity to the issue.

Scientists throughout the world are working doggedly to create an effective vaccine. This won’t be easy. The forecasts of an effective vaccine in 12-18 months may prove to be wildly optimistic. Consider that the common cold which tortures tens of millions of us every year is also caused by a coronavirus. No protective vaccine against cold viruses has been created and scientists have had decades to devise one. Apparently, it must not be easy. Keep in mind that some vaccines, such as the ‘flu shot’, only offer partial protection against a wily viral adversary. Viruses can also mutate which can render an existing vaccine much less effective. My point is that we should support and fund the creation of a vaccine – which might be our most potent anti-viral weapon – but we should be humbled by the task.

Still no vaccine for the common cold.

The overwhelmingly best strategy in the foreseeable future is to avoid infection. Increasingly, we are being instructed to wear masks, although these recommendations have evolved. Current thinking is that a decent mask protects others and the mask wearer.

I am doing my best to maintain consistent social distancing and those in my house are doing the same. Yes, it may be low tech, but it’s the best strategy we have right now. Yes, I do believe that several vaccines will emerge, but it may take longer than we have been told to expect and the ultimate safety and efficacy data may be less favorable than the initial claims. So, until then, wear a mask and keep your distance.

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